Alcoa Corp. (AA) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Alcoa Corp. (AA) has a Graham intrinsic value of $145.15 per share. At $41.45 on Oct 17, 2026, the stock trades 71% below that value. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 3.6% a year to $12.8B, with an average return on invested capital of -0.9%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- $145.15
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $41.45
- Price vs Graham value
- 71% below
- Market cap
- $10.8B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $12.8B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 3.6%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- -0.9%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- $567.0M
AA 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $12.8B | $1.2B | $4.37 | $567.0M | — | 17.2% |
| FY2024 | $11.9B | $60.0M | $0.26 | $42.0M | — | 1.0% |
| FY2023 | $10.6B | -$651.0M | -$3.65 | -$440.0M | — | -12.3% |
| FY2022 | $12.5B | -$123.0M | -$0.68 | $342.0M | — | -2.4% |
| FY2021 | $12.2B | $429.0M | $2.26 | $530.0M | — | 9.8% |
| FY2020 | $9.3B | -$170.0M | -$0.91 | $41.0M | — | -3.7% |
| FY2019 | $10.4B | -$1.1B | -$6.07 | $307.0M | — | -20.3% |
| FY2018 | $13.4B | $227.0M | $1.20 | $49.0M | — | 4.3% |
| FY2017 | $11.7B | $217.0M | $1.16 | $819.0M | — | 4.0% |
| FY2016 | $9.3B | -$400.0M | -$2.19 | -$715.0M | — | -6.4% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
Alcoa Corp has demonstrated mature, steady growth, with revenue compounding at 3.6% annually over the past decade.
Alcoa Corp has historically struggled to out-earn its cost of capital, averaging just -0.9% ROIC.
Alcoa Corp has not shown aggressive share repurchases (>10% retirement) or a major balance-sheet leverage increase (>50% net debt growth) over the 10-year window.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, Alcoa Corp is modeled at 15.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $145.15 per share.