Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD) has a Graham intrinsic value of $128.88 per share. At $57.39 on Oct 17, 2026, the stock trades 55% below that value. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 5.3% a year to $1.5B, with an average return on invested capital of 66.2%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- $128.88
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $57.39
- Price vs Graham value
- 55% below
- Market cap
- $1.9B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $1.5B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 5.3%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 66.2%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- $153.3M
BLBD 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $1.5B | $127.7M | $3.88 | $153.3M | 11.3% | 99.4% |
| FY2024 | $1.3B | $105.5M | $3.16 | $95.8M | 10.3% | 93.9% |
| FY2023 | $1.1B | $23.8M | $0.74 | $111.4M | 4.6% | 30.9% |
| FY2022 | $800.6M | -$45.8M | -$1.48 | -$30.9M | -5.1% | -23.5% |
| FY2021 | $684.0M | -$289.0K | -$0.01 | -$66.5M | 1.0% | 3.0% |
| FY2020 | $879.2M | $12.2M | $0.45 | -$15.5M | 2.5% | 27.0% |
| FY2019 | $1.0B | $24.3M | $0.90 | $20.2M | 4.3% | 61.0% |
| FY2018 | $1.0B | $30.8M | $1.08 | $16.2M | 3.2% | 79.5% |
| FY2017 | $990.6M | $28.8M | $0.74 | $38.4M | 5.5% | 180.1% |
| FY2016 | $932.0M | $6.9M | $0.14 | $15.5M | 2.9% | 111.2% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
Blue Bird Corp has demonstrated mature, steady growth, with revenue compounding at 5.3% annually over the past decade.
Blue Bird Corp has earned high returns on invested capital, averaging 48.4% ROIC over the available history. High ROIC is consistent with a durable franchise, but it is not by itself proof of an economic moat.
Blue Bird Corp has not shown aggressive share repurchases (>10% retirement) or a major balance-sheet leverage increase (>50% net debt growth) over the 10-year window.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, Blue Bird Corp is modeled at 15.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $128.88 per share.