Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) has a Graham intrinsic value of $37.87 per share. At $29.89 on Oct 17, 2026, the stock trades 21% below that value. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 13.2% a year to $11.9B, with an average return on invested capital of 14.1%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- $37.87
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $29.89
- Price vs Graham value
- 21% below
- Market cap
- $40.1B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $11.9B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 13.2%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 14.1%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- $1.4B
CMG 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $11.9B | $1.5B | $1.14 | $1.4B | 16.2% | 20.5% |
| FY2024 | $11.3B | $1.5B | $1.11 | $1.5B | 16.9% | 21.7% |
| FY2023 | $9.9B | $1.2B | $0.89 | $1.2B | 15.8% | 20.0% |
| FY2022 | $8.6B | $899.1M | $0.64 | $844.0M | 13.4% | 17.2% |
| FY2021 | $7.5B | $653.0M | $0.46 | $839.6M | 10.7% | 14.1% |
| FY2020 | $6.0B | $355.8M | $0.25 | $290.5M | 4.8% | 6.0% |
| FY2019 | $5.6B | $350.2M | $0.25 | $387.7M | 7.9% | 13.4% |
| FY2018 | $4.9B | $176.6M | $0.13 | $334.2M | 5.3% | 14.3% |
| FY2017 | $4.5B | $176.3M | $0.12 | $251.4M | 6.0% | 12.5% |
| FY2016 | $3.9B | $22.9M | $0.02 | $96.3M | 0.9% | 1.5% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a consistent compounder, expanding top-line revenue at 13.2% annually over the past decade.
Chipotle Mexican Grill has earned high returns on invested capital, averaging 15.9% ROIC over the available history. High ROIC is consistent with a durable franchise, but it is not by itself proof of an economic moat.
Chipotle Mexican Grill has not shown aggressive share repurchases (>10% retirement) or a major balance-sheet leverage increase (>50% net debt growth) over the 10-year window.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, Chipotle Mexican Grill is modeled at 15.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $37.87 per share.