Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) has no Graham intrinsic value right now because the formula needs positive earnings. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue shrank 13.0% a year to $1.0B, with an average return on invested capital of -10.7%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- —
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $6.92
- Market cap
- $374.3M
- Revenue (FY2026)
- $1.0B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- -13.0%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- -10.7%
- Free cash flow (FY2026)
- -$60.5M
FOSL 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $1.0B | -$77.8M | -$1.45 | -$60.5M | -1.9% | -10.4% |
| FY2024 | $1.1B | -$106.3M | -$1.94 | $39.9M | -9.1% | -35.2% |
| FY2023 | $1.4B | -$156.7M | -$3.00 | -$68.0M | -10.1% | -37.3% |
| FY2022 | $1.7B | -$43.5M | -$0.85 | -$124.1M | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| FY2021 | $1.6B | -$95.9M | -$1.88 | $92.5M | -8.4% | -19.1% |
| FY2019 | $2.2B | -$50.0M | -$1.04 | -$35.1M | -1.3% | -6.1% |
| FY2018 | $2.5B | -$938.0K | -$0.07 | $230.2M | 2.5% | 5.1% |
| FY2017 | $2.8B | -$473.6M | -$9.87 | $154.0M | -15.2% | -40.3% |
| FY2016 | $3.0B | $85.6M | $1.63 | $144.5M | 4.2% | 7.2% |
| FY2015 | $3.5B | $386.6M | $7.10 | $293.1M | 16.1% | 29.8% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
Fossil Group, Inc. is facing top-line stagnation, with revenue contracting over the decade.
Fossil Group, Inc. has historically struggled to out-earn its cost of capital, averaging just -10.7% ROIC.
Fossil Group, Inc. has not shown aggressive share repurchases (>10% retirement) or a major balance-sheet leverage increase (>50% net debt growth) over the 10-year window.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, Fossil Group, Inc. is modeled at -13.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $-24.55 per share.