Geo Group Inc. (GEO) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Geo Group Inc. (GEO) has a Graham intrinsic value of $38.47 per share. At $28.66 on Oct 17, 2026, the stock trades 26% below that value. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 2.1% a year to $2.6B, with an average return on invested capital of 7.1%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- $38.47
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $28.66
- Price vs Graham value
- 26% below
- Market cap
- $4.0B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $2.6B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 2.1%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 7.1%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- -$124.9M
GEO 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $2.6B | $254.4M | $1.82 | -$124.9M | 9.8% | 6.2% |
| FY2024 | $2.4B | $32.0M | $0.22 | $163.5M | 12.8% | 7.8% |
| FY2023 | $2.4B | $107.3M | $0.72 | $211.9M | 14.6% | 8.6% |
| FY2022 | $2.4B | $171.8M | $1.17 | $206.4M | 16.1% | 8.9% |
| FY2021 | $2.3B | $77.4M | $0.58 | $213.2M | 12.8% | 4.4% |
| FY2020 | $2.4B | $113.0M | $0.00 | $332.9M | 9.5% | 5.5% |
| FY2019 | $2.5B | $166.6M | $0.00 | $220.9M | 12.1% | 7.5% |
| FY2018 | $2.3B | $145.1M | $0.00 | $78.8M | 11.4% | 6.8% |
| FY2017 | $2.3B | $146.2M | $0.00 | $232.6M | 11.0% | 6.9% |
| FY2016 | $2.2B | $148.7M | $0.00 | -$109.6M | 12.2% | 8.2% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
GEO GROUP INC has demonstrated mature, steady growth, with revenue compounding at 2.1% annually over the past decade.
GEO GROUP INC has historically struggled to out-earn its cost of capital, averaging just 7.1% ROIC.
Over the decade, GEO GROUP INC shows that management has aggressively returned capital to shareholders by retiring 99.8% of outstanding shares.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, GEO GROUP INC is modeled at 8.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $38.47 per share.