Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has no Graham intrinsic value right now because the formula needs positive earnings. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue shrank 27.5% a year to $189.0M, with an average return on invested capital of -3.3%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- —
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $14.47
- Market cap
- $976.7M
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $189.0M
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- -27.5%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- -3.3%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- $73.7M
GPRE 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $189.0M | -$121.3M | -$1.80 | $73.7M | -35.6% | -4.3% |
| FY2024 | $163.0M | -$82.5M | -$1.29 | -$125.0M | -29.1% | -4.3% |
| FY2023 | $136.3M | -$93.4M | -$1.59 | -$51.7M | -45.2% | -5.6% |
| FY2022 | $78.6M | -$127.2M | -$2.29 | -$142.7M | -126.0% | -9.2% |
| FY2021 | $86.2M | -$66.0M | -$1.41 | -$182.9M | 29.6% | 2.6% |
| FY2020 | $50.1M | -$108.8M | -$3.14 | -$11.7M | -244.7% | -9.5% |
| FY2019 | $84.0M | -$166.9M | -$4.38 | -$85.0M | -169.6% | -12.8% |
| FY2018 | $1.2B | $15.9M | $0.39 | -$5.2M | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| FY2017 | $3.6B | $61.1M | $1.47 | -$206.3M | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| FY2016 | $3.4B | $10.7M | $0.28 | $24.8M | 2.7% | 3.8% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
Green Plains Inc. is facing top-line stagnation, with revenue contracting over the decade.
Green Plains Inc. has historically struggled to out-earn its cost of capital, averaging just -3.3% ROIC.
Green Plains Inc. has not shown aggressive share repurchases (>10% retirement) or a major balance-sheet leverage increase (>50% net debt growth) over the 10-year window.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, Green Plains Inc. is modeled at -27.5% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $-15.64 per share.