HARLEY-DAVIDSON, Inc. (HOG) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, Inc. (HOG) has a Graham intrinsic value of $3.60 per share. At $26.76 on Oct 17, 2026, the stock trades 643% above that value. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue shrank 5.5% a year to $3.6B, with an average return on invested capital of 6.9%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- $3.60
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $26.76
- Price vs Graham value
- 643% above
- Market cap
- $3.2B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $3.6B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- -5.5%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 6.9%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- $415.2M
HOG 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $3.6B | $338.7M | $2.78 | $415.2M | 10.7% | 5.3% |
| FY2024 | $4.1B | $455.4M | $3.44 | $867.3M | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| FY2023 | $4.9B | $706.6M | $4.87 | $547.5M | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| FY2022 | $4.9B | $741.4M | $4.96 | $396.8M | 18.4% | 10.0% |
| FY2021 | $4.5B | $650.0M | $4.19 | $855.5M | 18.1% | 9.8% |
| FY2020 | $3.3B | $1.3M | $0.01 | $1.0B | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| FY2019 | $5.4B | $423.6M | $2.68 | $686.8M | 10.4% | 5.7% |
| FY2018 | $5.7B | $531.5M | $3.19 | $992.4M | 12.5% | 7.9% |
| FY2017 | $5.6B | $521.8M | $3.02 | $798.8M | 15.8% | 7.8% |
| FY2016 | $6.0B | $692.2M | $3.83 | $918.1M | 17.5% | 10.3% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. is facing top-line stagnation, with revenue contracting over the decade.
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. has historically struggled to out-earn its cost of capital, averaging just 6.9% ROIC.
Over the decade, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. shows that management has aggressively returned capital to shareholders by retiring 32.8% of outstanding shares.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. is modeled at -3.5% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $3.60 per share.