Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has a Graham intrinsic value of $668.30 per share. At $218.01 on Oct 17, 2026, the stock trades 67% below that value. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 37.8% a year to $1.9B, with an average return on invested capital of 13.2%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- $668.30
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $218.01
- Price vs Graham value
- 67% below
- Market cap
- $84.8B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $1.9B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 37.8%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 13.2%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- -$2.1B
MRNA 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $1.9B | -$2.8B | -$7.26 | -$2.1B | -158.1% | -36.2% |
| FY2024 | $3.2B | -$3.6B | -$9.28 | -$4.1B | -121.9% | -35.7% |
| FY2023 | $6.8B | -$4.7B | -$12.33 | -$3.8B | -61.9% | -29.1% |
| FY2022 | $19.3B | $8.4B | $20.12 | $4.6B | 48.9% | 66.0% |
| FY2021 | $18.5B | $12.2B | $28.29 | $13.3B | 72.0% | 299.8% |
| FY2020 | $803.4M | -$747.1M | -$1.96 | $2.0B | -95.0% | -125.5% |
| FY2019 | $60.2M | -$514.0M | -$1.55 | -$490.5M | -906.4% | -50.9% |
| FY2018 | $135.1M | -$384.7M | — | -$436.6M | -306.0% | -84.4% |
| FY2017 | $205.8M | -$255.9M | — | -$389.9M | -130.9% | 60.8% |
| FY2016 | $108.4M | -$216.2M | — | $33.6M | -206.4% | 66.8% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
Moderna is a consistent compounder, expanding top-line revenue at 37.8% annually over the past decade.
Moderna has historically struggled to out-earn its cost of capital, averaging just -16.5% ROIC.
Moderna capital allocation metrics are N/A for the decade; share count and net debt history are incomplete.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, Moderna is modeled at 15.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $668.30 per share.