Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) has a Graham intrinsic value of €349.10 per share. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 21.6% a year to €17.2B, with an average return on invested capital of 2.7%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- €349.10
- Revenue (FY2025)
- €17.2B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 21.6%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 2.7%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- €2.9B
SPOT 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | €17.2B | €2.2B | €10.51 | €2.9B | 12.8% | 81.7% |
| FY2024 | €15.7B | €1.1B | €5.50 | €2.3B | 8.7% | 80.0% |
| FY2023 | €13.2B | -€532.0M | -€2.73 | €674.0M | -3.4% | -53.8% |
| FY2022 | €11.7B | -€430.0M | -€2.93 | €21.0M | -5.6% | -81.2% |
| FY2021 | €9.7B | -€34.0M | -€1.03 | €276.0M | 1.0% | 4.2% |
| FY2020 | €7.9B | -€581.0M | -€3.10 | €181.0M | -3.7% | -14.5% |
| FY2019 | €6.8B | -€186.0M | -€1.03 | €438.0M | -1.1% | — |
| FY2018 | €5.3B | -€78.0M | -€0.51 | €219.0M | -0.8% | — |
| FY2017 | €4.1B | -€1.2B | -€8.14 | €143.0M | -9.2% | — |
| FY2016 | €3.0B | -€539.0M | -€3.63 | €74.0M | -11.8% | — |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in EUR.
Executive summary
Spotify Technology S.A. is a consistent compounder, expanding top-line revenue at 21.6% annually over the past decade.
Spotify Technology S.A. has historically struggled to out-earn its cost of capital, averaging just 2.7% ROIC.
Spotify Technology S.A. has not shown aggressive share repurchases (>10% retirement) or a major balance-sheet leverage increase (>50% net debt growth) over the 10-year window.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, Spotify Technology S.A. is modeled at 15.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $349.10 per share.