Warrior Met COAL, Inc. (HCC) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Warrior Met COAL, Inc. (HCC) has no Graham intrinsic value right now because the formula needs positive earnings. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 17.9% a year to $1.3B, with an average return on invested capital of 30.1%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- —
- Share price (Oct 16, 2026)
- $89.94
- Market cap
- $4.7B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $1.3B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 17.9%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 30.1%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- -$91.0M
HCC 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $1.3B | $57.0M | $1.08 | -$91.0M | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| FY2024 | $1.5B | $250.6M | $4.79 | -$89.8M | 16.7% | 14.7% |
| FY2023 | $1.7B | $478.6M | $9.20 | $209.4M | 32.3% | 42.2% |
| FY2022 | $1.7B | $641.3M | $12.40 | $636.7M | 46.1% | 74.0% |
| FY2021 | $1.1B | $150.9M | $2.93 | $293.6M | 23.0% | 20.9% |
| FY2020 | $782.7M | -$35.8M | -$0.70 | $25.1M | -3.5% | -1.9% |
| FY2019 | $1.3B | $301.7M | $5.86 | $425.5M | 30.2% | 32.9% |
| FY2018 | $1.4B | $696.8M | $13.17 | $457.8M | 36.9% | 59.8% |
| FY2017 | $1.2B | $455.0M | $8.62 | $341.9M | 36.2% | 63.5% |
| FY2016 | $297.6M | -$49.7M | — | — | — | -8.1% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
HCC is a consistent compounder, expanding top-line revenue at 17.9% annually over the past decade.
HCC has earned high returns on invested capital, averaging 30.0% ROIC over the available history. High ROIC is consistent with a durable franchise, but it is not by itself proof of an economic moat.
HCC has not shown aggressive share repurchases (>10% retirement) or a major balance-sheet leverage increase (>50% net debt growth) over the 10-year window.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, HCC is modeled at -22.9% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $-34.70 per share.