Progressive CORP/OH/ (PGR) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Progressive CORP/OH/ (PGR) has a Graham intrinsic value of $638.74 per share. At $218.49 on Oct 17, 2026, the stock trades 66% below that value. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 15.8% a year to $87.7B, with an average return on invested capital of 25.9%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- $638.74
- Share price (Oct 17, 2026)
- $218.49
- Price vs Graham value
- 66% below
- Market cap
- $128.5B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $87.7B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 15.8%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 25.9%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- $17.2B
PGR 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $87.7B | $11.3B | $19.23 | $17.2B | — | 40.6% |
| FY2024 | $75.4B | $8.5B | $14.40 | $14.8B | — | 37.2% |
| FY2023 | $62.1B | $3.9B | $6.58 | $10.4B | — | 21.8% |
| FY2022 | $49.6B | $721.5M | $1.18 | $6.6B | — | 4.3% |
| FY2021 | $47.7B | $3.4B | $5.66 | $7.5B | — | 18.9% |
| FY2020 | $42.7B | $5.7B | $9.66 | $6.7B | — | 32.7% |
| FY2019 | $39.0B | $4.0B | $6.72 | $5.9B | — | — |
| FY2018 | $32.0B | $2.6B | $4.42 | $6.0B | — | — |
| FY2017 | $26.8B | $1.6B | $2.72 | $3.6B | — | — |
| FY2016 | $23.4B | $1.0B | $1.76 | $2.5B | — | — |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
Progressive Corporation is a consistent compounder, expanding top-line revenue at 15.8% annually over the past decade.
Progressive Corporation has earned high returns on invested capital, averaging 25.9% ROIC over the available history. High ROIC is consistent with a durable franchise, but it is not by itself proof of an economic moat.
Progressive Corporation has not shown aggressive share repurchases (>10% retirement) or a major balance-sheet leverage increase (>50% net debt growth) over the 10-year window.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, Progressive Corporation is modeled at 15.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $638.74 per share.