Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) intrinsic value & 10-year financials
Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a Graham intrinsic value of $297.94 per share. At $118.51 on Oct 20, 2026, the stock trades 60% below that value. Over the last 10 fiscal years revenue grew 7.5% a year to $7.1B, with an average return on invested capital of 17.2%.
- Graham intrinsic value
- $297.94
- Share price (Oct 20, 2026)
- $118.51
- Price vs Graham value
- 60% below
- Market cap
- $19.2B
- Revenue (FY2025)
- $7.1B
- Revenue growth (10-yr CAGR)
- 7.5%
- ROIC (10-yr avg)
- 17.2%
- Free cash flow (FY2025)
- $1.8B
CF 10-year financial history
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | EPS (diluted) | Free cash flow | Operating margin | ROIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $7.1B | $1.8B | $8.97 | $1.8B | 32.5% | 23.5% |
| FY2024 | $5.9B | $1.5B | $6.74 | $1.8B | 29.4% | 17.6% |
| FY2023 | $6.6B | $1.8B | $7.87 | $2.3B | 33.6% | 21.9% |
| FY2022 | $11.2B | $3.9B | $16.38 | $3.4B | 48.2% | 56.6% |
| FY2021 | $6.5B | $1.3B | $4.24 | $2.4B | 26.4% | 20.7% |
| FY2020 | $4.1B | $432.0M | $1.47 | $922.0M | 15.1% | 8.5% |
| FY2019 | $4.6B | $646.0M | $2.23 | $1.1B | 21.9% | 12.2% |
| FY2018 | $4.4B | $428.0M | $1.24 | $1.1B | 17.3% | 8.3% |
| FY2017 | $4.1B | $450.0M | $1.53 | $1.2B | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| FY2016 | $3.7B | -$158.0M | -$1.19 | -$1.6B | 3.6% | 1.2% |
Source: annual 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Figures in USD.
Executive summary
CF Industries has demonstrated mature, steady growth, with revenue compounding at 7.5% annually over the past decade.
CF Industries has earned high returns on invested capital, averaging 17.2% ROIC over the available history. High ROIC is consistent with a durable franchise, but it is not by itself proof of an economic moat.
Over the decade, CF Industries shows that management has aggressively returned capital to shareholders by retiring 30.4% of outstanding shares.
Benjamin Graham lens
Under Benjamin Graham's formula using SEC EDGAR fundamentals, CF Industries is modeled at 15.0% normalized earnings growth with a 5.1% bond-yield adjustment. The resulting Graham intrinsic value estimate is $297.94 per share.